Dynamical Model of Intractable Conflict

The next stage of our research on intractable conflict (in addition to my ongoing qualitative and experimental work) involves the development of dynamical computer models of conflict intractability and constructive transformation. Computer simulation modeling (such as cellular automata and neural network modeling) can allow us to investigate the simultaneous interactions of multiple variables over time, thereby better comprehending the relationships between micro- and macro-level variables, revealing the emergence of patterns over time, and providing essential tools for the visualization and validation of experimental findings. The key variables identified through previous exploratory and experimental research (on ripeness, collective identity, and moral emotions) will constitute the main parameters of dynamical models of conflict intractability. This will allow us to assess the long-term consequences of changes in the levels of the variables (like more adaptive identities), in the context of a network of other key relations. We are currently collaborating with Andrzej Nowak and Robin Vallacher of the Center for Complex Systems at the University of Warsaw on these models. A preliminary dynamical model of protracted intergroup conflict has also been developed (see Coleman, Schneider, James, Adams, Gameros, Hammons, Orji, Waugh, & Wicker, 2004), and is currently being tested.